Russia after the elections

I have been arguing that the elections (parliamentary and presidential) would not change the political situation in Russia in any fundamental way in the short term but that the increasingly assertive middle class represent the best hope for real change in Russia in the medium term.

I was partly right because the formal political set-up has not changed (United Russia won a majority in the Duma and Putin is still expected to become President) and the middle class could now become an engine of change. But it all happened sooner than expected and something did change the week after the parliamentary election on 4 December. The protests and vocal discontent with the ruling elite in general and Prime Minister Putin in particular suddenly became a political force too strong to be easily dismissed or repressed by the Kremlin. 

This force has been described as urban, middle class, young, and frustrated with the ruling elite. All that is probably true but that is also where the easy categorization ends. There is no single organization or leadership but rather a mix of groups with different interests that have united through social networks on the internet based on what they don’t like.

It is therefore difficult to predict how this frustration will play out. But given the fact that the protests so far have been larger than expected and calmer than feared, there is reason to believe this force will not go away anytime soon. Indeed, new demonstrations are scheduled on 24 December.

This should be welcomed as it will put pressure for free and fair elections, more plurality and increased transparency. But given the absence of a single organization, leadership or ideology behind the protesters, it is difficult (although not impossible) to see how this force can challenge the current leadership.

Putin and United Russia are, after all, popular (albeit not as popular as the official election results suggest) among a large share of the Russian population after more than a decade of rapid economic growth and increased stability. Some of the leaders behind the protests have been suggested as potential rivals to Putin for the presidency and an oligarch announced his candidacy this week. More names may appear in the near future but I doubt anyone will have the capacity to unite the protesters and become a serious challenge to Putin in March. 

The political situation in Russia has become more complex and uncertain, but there is also reason to believe things will change for the better even though it is too soon to speculate exactly how things will evolve. In the meantime, I believe one should be careful in comparing this with the color revolutions in Eastern Europe or with the uprisings in the Middle East.

I believe the inevitable change in Russia will follow its own logic, but I dare to say that it has started.