China’s population growth is slowing down

The one child policy is so strong in the Chinese mind today that a Chinese couple I recently met here in Sweden told me that they had not even thought about the fact that they could have more than one child until another Chinese couple got their second child in Sweden. This spurred them to have another child as Chinese babies born abroad are not counted into the one child policy.

Having just one is good

Last week, the results from the national census in 2010 were released in China and it seems that China has definitely been affected by the one child policy. Now, the Chinese population is 1.34 billion Chinese, up from 1.31 billion in 2005. But this past decade has seen almost a halving of population annual growth to 0.57 percent compared to 1.07 percent the previous decade 1990-2000, and the average family size decreased to 3.1 persons in 2010 from 3.4 persons in 2000. Gender imbalances look quite alright at a first glance showing 105 males per 100 females, but this is the gender balance over all ages. For younger Chinese, gender imbalances are worse given the preferences for sons. In 2000, there were 120 boys born per 100 girls, and an estimated 1 million girls had gone missing every year since 1979. Other estimates say that in the future between 30 million and 50 million men will have a hard time finding a wife due to the gender imbalance.

Another effect of the one child policy is that the Chinese population is ageing: the share of 60+ year old Chinese is now 13.26 percent compared to 10.33 percent in 2000. The population in coastal areas is ageing even faster than in other parts of the country, most likely because higher disposable income help keep people healthier longer.  In Shanghai for example, already 23 percent of the population are older than 60 years.

The gender imbalance among the younger Chinese and the rapidly ageing China have made Chinese population experts renew the debate on whether the one child policy is good for China in the long run. On one hand, it is good as the country would have experienced a population explosion if it had continued the Mao way. On the other hand, the policy puts strains on the younger Chinese that have to support the ageing population and what about the men who cannot find wives? In some urban areas, the policy has been relaxed for several years allowing couples that are single children to have two kids. But given the cost to raise a child, many urban Chinese couples find it more affordable to have only one child. In rural areas however, it is not uncommon to find families with more than one child, especially if the older one is a girl.

The ageing population and gender imbalance affect the development of the Chinese society, but also create investment opportunities, which is something our team is looking at.