Blogginlägg med etiketten EU

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Congratulations Croatia (and the EU)!
Marcus Svedberg
2011-06-10 (Comments)

The EU announced today that it has closed all the negotiating chapters with Croatia and has thus cleared the country for membership, most likely in 2013.

The EU will take the formal decision on 24 June and then the long ratification process starts, which can be thorny. But this is very positive and welcome news for Croatia and, I would argue, for Europe as a whole. It was uncertain (see our own view a few weeks ago) if they would be able to finalise the negotiations within the self-imposed deadline in June, but it seems like the Croatian government was successful in convincing the EU Commission that their efforts are not only enough but also sustainable.

This should also give a positive input to the accession process in the other countries in the region. Serbia hopes to become a formal candidate country this year and Montenegro, which already has achieved that status, wants to start their accession negotiations. EU integration is a very important reform driver in Southeastern Europe and thus a positive factor in their economic development.

(Comments) | Taggar: Croatia, EU
Marcus Svedbergs bild

Turkey and the world
Marcus Svedberg
2010-11-12 (Comments)

The string of interviews with the media has focused on Turkey’s role in the world and there is a growing appreciation of their new and increasingly assertive foreign policy.

The EU has released its progress report on Turkey and it entailed no major surprises. It highlighted that Turkey needs to improve the freedom of press and the protection of ethnic and religious minorities while acknowledging progress in other areas. But the real problem is that the accession process has slowed down considerably, some would say stalled, due to the fact that 18 negotiating chapters are being blocked over the Cyprus issue.

Turkey and the world

The new UN sponsored talks on Cyprus offer some hope, but the prospects for a solution in the short term should not be exaggerated, and there are a number of old EU members – most notably France but also Germany, Spain and others – that find the Cyprus deadlock rather convenient. A (British) Member of European Parliament is pointedly arguing that “the rest of Europe is being held to ransom by the tragic conjunction of Greek prejudice and Turkish pride” and that “those who oppose Turkey’s EU membership know very well how to play the Cyprus card”.

The challenge is to keep the goal of accession real in order to push for all the reforms associated with accession. It may sound strange, but from a strictly economic perspective, the accession process may be even more important than actual membership.

One may get a distorted worldview by relying primarily on British (FT, BBC and the Economist) rather than German or French media, but there is doubtlessly a growing community pushing for Turkish membership in European political (EU) and security institutions. It may take time, even a long time, but the goal has to be full membership and the criteria need to be applied in a fair way, otherwise Turkey may not be interested. And that would be a loss for both the EU and Turkey.

(Comments) | Taggar: accession process, EU, Turkey
Karine Hirns bild

A different perspective on Russia
Karine Hirn
2010-02-03 (Comments)

When following the debate in Brussels about Turkey’s EU convergence process I hear many comments on what the country could contribute to the EU in terms of positive demographics, competitive industries, strong economic growth and mediation role with the Middle East. I recently took notice of a new one, which I found remarkable: Turkey’s perspective on Russia is much more business-driven and constructive, and could be inspiring other EU countries, whose attitude towards Russia lacks unity and is often very suspicious by nature.

Last week end I participated at a very interesting discussion during the Trilateral Strategy Group’s meeting that the think-tank German Marshall Fund hosted in Stockholm. The GMF invited some 40 people from the EU, the US and Turkey to bravely face the harsh Swedish winter and -20 degrees, warming up brainstorming over a number of foreign policy issues and future trends in geopolitics. One of the themes was Russia, and the Turkish delegates’ view on this country differed so much from the EU perspective as being more pragmatic and less suspicious on all accounts.

Without hiding some of the challenges in the relationship, such as some conflicting interests in the neighboring region, the Turks see an increasing number of mutual opportunities in the business area. They do not only see them, they also exploit them. The volume of bilateral trade has increased significantly; Russia was the largest trading partner of Turkey in 2008 with as much as 38 bn USD. It fell to 23 bn USD in 2009 due to the crisis but Russia remains Turkey’s third largest partner. Turkey imports 60% of its gas and 30% of its oil from Russia and major Russian companies are closely following developments in privatization or Greenfield projects in the telecommunications and energy sector. At the time when Turkish companies send thousands of workers to Russia and are very successful in the construction sector there, Turkey today receives more than 3 million Russian tourists per year, and each of them is known to be spending like three Irish tourists! During Prime Minister Erdogan’s visit to Moscow a few weeks ago discussions to introduce a visa free regime between Russia and Turkey were initiated and are expected to continue during President Medvedev’s visit to Ankara in May. One of the clearly announced goals is to make easier the life of the Turkish business people willing to conduct business in Russia.

One of the reasons we started to look at Turkish equities for our Russian fund back in the year 2000 and 2001 was to get exposure to some investment themes such as retail boom; so the success of Turkish entrepreneurs in Russia is a well-known fact for us. Now I realize that looking at Russia through Turkish eyes could also make a difference on other levels, namely the perception of the benefits through more trade and investments. And I would dare to say: this should constitute another Turkish contribution to the EU.

(Comments) | Taggar: EU, Russia, Turkey

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Våra bloggare

  • Karine Hirns bild
    Karine Hirn

    Partner och Chief Representative, Shanghai-kontoret. Karine bloggar om East Capital, våra fondprodukter och ger direktrapporter från Shanghai.

  • Marcus Svedbergs bild
    Marcus Svedberg

    East Capitals chefekonom fokuserar på makroekonomi, analyser och omvärldshändelser som påverkar utvecklingen i regionen.

  • Vesna Luccas bild
    Vesna Lucca
    East Capitals kommunikationschef skriver främst om East Capital som företag och aktuella mediefrågor.
  • Kristina Sandklefs bild
    Kristina Sandklef

    Kristina, makroekonom Asien, delar med sig av sina erfarenheter och analyserar trender och händelser som påverkar Kina.

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