The equity market capitalisation of the emerging markets has exploded over the last 10 years, rising from $2 trillion in 2000 to about $14 trillion today. At the same time, the market capitalisation of the developed markets has only increased from $29 trillion a decade ago to $30 trillion now.
That statistic is shocking, since by all accounts it should have doubled: numerous studies have shown that the long-term average return from equity investments is about 8% - which means that if you invest $100 in stocks, it should double in value every 10 years or so, not end up at $103. If you count inflation into the equation, then you have actually lost money, which the developed markets did over the last decade.
Over the same period, emerging markets not only beat developed market investments hands down, they soared seven-fold: the same $100 invested in emerging markets would have been worth $700 at the end of the decade, according to Goldman's calculations.
Furthermore, Goldman says that while the pace of growth in the value of emerging stock markets will slow, they will still handsomely outpace those in the West: Goldman predicts that the value of developed equity markets will rise by half from $30 trillion today to $46 trillion in 2020, and slightly less than half in the following decade to reach $66 trillion by 2030. By 2030, the value of emerging stock markets will have reached $80 trillion and the world's financial centre of gravity will have shifted for good.












