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Guest blogger - bnes bild
2010-09-28 (Comments)

The landscape has changed completely as a result of the global economic crisis and in September Goldman Sachs released a report that recalibrates its classic 2001 paper that introduced the world to the idea of the Bric markets.

The equity market capitalisation of the emerging markets has exploded over the last 10 years, rising from $2 trillion in 2000 to about $14 trillion today. At the same time, the market capitalisation of the developed markets has only increased from $29 trillion a decade ago to $30 trillion now.

That statistic is shocking, since by all accounts it should have doubled: numerous studies have shown that the long-term average return from equity investments is about 8% - which means that if you invest $100 in stocks, it should double in value every 10 years or so, not end up at $103. If you count inflation into the equation, then you have actually lost money, which the developed markets did over the last decade.

Over the same period, emerging markets not only beat developed market investments hands down, they soared seven-fold: the same $100 invested in emerging markets would have been worth $700 at the end of the decade, according to Goldman's calculations.

Furthermore, Goldman says that while the pace of growth in the value of emerging stock markets will slow, they will still handsomely outpace those in the West: Goldman predicts that the value of developed equity markets will rise by half from $30 trillion today to $46 trillion in 2020, and slightly less than half in the following decade to reach $66 trillion by 2030. By 2030, the value of emerging stock markets will have reached $80 trillion and the world's financial centre of gravity will have shifted for good.

 

Taggar: BRIC, market capitalisation | (Comments)
Karine Hirns bild
2010-09-20 (Comments)

Last week I spoke in Hong Kong at a conference dedicated to Russia & CIS, alongside a number of Russian officials, entrepreneurs and other asset managers from Russia. It is clear that there is an increasing interest in our region out of Asia, as there have been a few such conferences lately and an increased presence of Moscow investment bankers in the streets of the Central District.

This interest was certainly triggered by the IPO earlier this year in Hong Kong of Russia’s RUSAL, the world’s largest aluminum producer and the first ever Russian company to go public in Hong Kong. As such the IPO itself was eventful because of concerns about the company’s large debt burden and the unprecedented moves by the local regulator to prevent retail investors from participating in the offering. But many also interpreted it as a sign that Hong Kong was eventually succeeding in attracting companies from outside Greater China to its main list.


View of Hong Kong Island from the Star Ferry

Since then there have been many rumors about other Russian companies on their way to get a listing in Hong Kong. According to Chinese media, Shanghai’s international board has also received some interest from Russian companies. Currently however no specific plans have been announced.

In the meantime we obviously think it is positive to see a surge in Asian investors’ awareness about investment opportunities in Eastern Europe, Russia and neighbouring countries. I was interviewed by CNBC on the subject of investing in Eastern Europe.

Taggar: Asia, CNBC, investor interest, Russia | (Comments)
Vesna Luccas bild
2010-09-17 (Comments)

The latest East Capital Summit on 8-10 September 2010 saw over 100 of our clients and contacts gather together in Prague to debate and discuss the latest developments in our thinking and to listen to the latest news about our investment region and visiting local companies.

Peter Elam Håkansson and colleagues argued that the size of Russia's discount is unsustainable given the concrete progress that the country has made over the past decade. An inflection point is nearing where the Russian market will undergo a re-rating, which should be a bonanza for investors.

Looking further afield to some of the companies that presented at the East Capital Summit, Eduard Zehetner, CEO of Austrian property investor Immofinanz, called the property market in Russia "drastically undervalued", where yields at shopping centres stand at 12.5% compared with Poland where they are 6.5%.

Surveying the macro picture, Bengt Dennis, a former governor of the Swedish central bank who sits on East Capital's advisory committee, said that most CEE markets have still not returned to full capacity; in many cases the markets are nearing growth rates of the past, but some are lagging and will take more time to get back there.

As a contrast, Turkey was discussed as one of the least export-dependent economies in the region but is benefiting from strong domestic demand from its young and growing population, which is driving the economy and the stock market is reaching all-time highs this year.

For our investors, the important point is not to wait for that broad-based recovery to arrive and an economy running at full capacity before investing, because he or she will run the risk of missing out on the superior returns. We strive to remain at the forefront of developments to recognise interesting opportunities for dedicated investors. We remain committed to Russia, which we think is still misunderstood, and are currently actively investing in the Balkan region. You can review soundbites of the views expressed at the Summit at twitter.com/eastcapital here.

Short film clip from the summit

Taggar: East Capital Summit | (Comments)
Karine Hirns bild
2010-09-10 (Comments)

Gustav Rhenman, the founder of Asia Growth Investors (AGI) that was recently acquired by East Capital, joined the East Capital Summit in Prague today and highlighted China's industrial strategy as being a very strong growth driver for the Chinese economy, a theme for which he strives to find the right exposure in his investment portfolio.

"The fact that today's Chinese leadership is dominated by people with a strong interest in technology - with President Hu Jintao and seven out of nine members of the Politburo's standing committee having an engineering background - might be part of the explanation why China has been so successful in transforming itself from a low-tech manufacturing nation based on low cost labour to a country today competing head to head in high technology" said Gustav Rhenman.

However, moving up the value chain might entail that China’s giant surpluses are likely to become even larger. Between 2004 and 2009 the Chinese trade surplus has risen from USD32 to 250 billion, and currency reserves are today the world's largest amounting to USD2.45 trillion. Gustav Rhenman singled out the growing imbalance coming from the increasing dependency of the US on China as a significant geopolitical risk that could affect investor sentiment globally. "Still, China has so far been successful in  handling these tensions and I see no reason to believe this would change in the coming years."

Commenting on concerns regarding a possible slowdown in Chinese growth - which he considers being overstated - he said "short term set-backs would not undermine the compelling investment case and the long term growth potential of China, which is supported by a massive urbanisation trend and a population becoming wealthier and eventually spending more".

Turning to valuations Gustav Rhenman commented that investors should be reconsidering which valuation metrics to use for a market such as the Chinese one with much higher growth prospects than in the developed world. At the same time he stressed that an active stock-picking approach and many company visits within China enable him to find stocks with attractive valuations and an excellent risk-reward ratio. "That is one of the reasons I am very pleased to join forces with East Capital as I will have more time and resources to dedicate to this work".

Taggar: AGI, China, East Capital Summit | (Comments)
Guest blogger - bnes bild
2010-09-10 (Comments)

East Capital became a little more eastern this year with the completion in June of the acquisition of Asia Growth Investors (AGI), whose funds centred on China will be rebranded as East Capital from January next year. 

"As investors in Russia and Eastern Europe, it's extremely important to understand the natural resource sector and the Chinese market is a very important part of that; we are also seeing more and more trade between Russia and China; and finally, the Chinese market itself is very exciting market and we see so much happening, the market is very worth looking at itself," Peter Elam Hakansson, chairman and founding partner of East Capital, explained the decision to acquire 100% of AGI. 

Gustav Rhenman, fund manager of AGI, laid out the opportunities that attracted East Capital to invest in this expansion: China has had an average annual growth rate of about 10% over past 30 years. If it maintains a 9% growth rate and the US a 3% growth rate over the next 10 years, its economy will be roughly same size as the US. Its industries are growing into the largest in the world – its car industry has already overtaken Japan's to become the largest and by 2020 is forecast to produce 40m cars; by 2020 it will dominate telecoms infrastructure. "Consumption is growing at 15-20% per year – that creates a fantastic framework for industries to grow in," said Rhenman.

By 2020, the Chinese equity markets could be the largest in the world; currently, Chinese stock markets account for 14% of global market cap, compared with Europe 25% and North America 35%.

Taggar: East Capital Summit | (Comments)
Guest blogger - bnes bild
2010-09-10 (Comments)

Turning to Ukraine, Anders Aslund, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said the country, one of the worst hit by the global economic crisis, is certainly lagging behind the rest of the region in terms of the recovery, but is speeding up and is now on a "reasonable track."

The macro picture, which was blighted by the 15% contraction in GDP in 2009, is so much better that the country is now expected to post about 6% growth this year. The crisis has meant the current account deficit has almost been eliminated, while inflation will come in at less than 1% this year. 

The newfound stability in the political sphere since President Viktor Yanukovych assumed the presidency at the start of this year means an ambitious reform programme has been launched, but are the aims achievable? 

The first big test was the conclusion of a new agreement with the IMF on June 3, which is for $15bn for 2 ½ years, essentially giving the country $1.5bn per quarter. Importantly, this money won't be used to finance external deficits, but to help bring the budget deficit of 6.5% this year down to 3.5% next year and for the reform effort. 

A central part of the reform programme is to raise gas prices, which hitherto have been heavily subsidised and were a huge drag on the economy. They were raised 50% from August 1 and will be hiked another 50% from April 1. 

Other measures are a bank recapitalisation worth $5bn, far-reaching deregulation for business, which is especially crucial for the SME segment that suffers from a stifling bureaucracy. "It's quite substantial reform measures being undertaken in Ukraine, it's a strong agenda through problem area still exist," says Aslund. 

For one thing, the country needs more reform of the pension system, the expenditures for which stand at 18% of GDP, the highest in world. Ukraine has promised to cut this to 12% of GDP by 2014, but more needs to be done. There are no serious measures against corruption, and the privatisation programme promised will almost certainly see the assets go to favoured local businessmen. "It's no secret who will get what, it's not a question of open tenders," he said. "The oligarchs restored! The people who run Ukraine are those who own Ukraine."

Taggar: East Capital Summit | (Comments)
Guest blogger - bnes bild
2010-09-09 (Comments)

CEZ
Barbara Seidlova, head of investors relations at power utilities company CEZ, said the Czech company has decided to focus on EU candidate countries rather than in the less developed but higher growth markets of Russia and Ukraine. "The regulatory environment is difficult to operate in and the size of assets are a problem in those countries, so we have decided to focus rather on EU candidate countries," she said, adding that the continent is heading towards becoming one whole electricity market operating on the same grid.

Immofinanz
Eduard Zehetner, CEO and CFO of Austrian property investor Immofinanz, called the property market in Russia "drastically undervalued", where yields at shopping centres stand at 12.5% compared with Poland where they are 6.5%. "You cannot argue 600 basis points between Moscow and Katowice is right, the valuation gap will close," he said.

Regarding Immofinanz, which is only now emerging from a near-bankrupt situation in the aftermath of the crisis, Zehetner said the current share price of his firm, around 80 cents, is well up from the low of 25 cents, but is still some way below the net asset value. "The share price means that the Western Europe part of the business trades at the NAV, while you get the CEE business virtually for free at the current price."

Central European Media Enterprises
Central European Media Enterprises (CME) Petr Dvorak, senior vice president of broadcasting, said there is still a huge level of growth in the advertising market in the six emerging European countries in which it operates, where there are far better prospects than those markets further west.

Using figures to illustrate his point, he said total ad spend per capita in Western Europe is $248 but only $44 in CME's markets. "If you're a car maker or a manufacturer of consumer goods, it's much cheaper to do an ad here than in Germany and the growth potential is pretty high."

Regarding M&A opportunities, Dvorak said CME would certainly be interested if it could find an acquisition like the one it completed in Bulgaria, where it bought the number one player for about $400m.

Taggar: East Capital Summit | (Comments)
Guest blogger - bnes bild
2010-09-09 (Comments)

According to Andras Szalkai, member of the portfolio management team at East Capital, who kicked of the second day of the East Capital Summit in Prague on September 9, the four Visegrad countries – Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia – overall are more developed than elsewhere in Central and Eastern Europe, but there's still a catch-up wave for investors to ride.

"The overall development is higher than elsewhere in Eastern Europe, but there's still catch-up potential, as they are still below the EU15 average in terms of GDP/capita," said Szalkai, adding that these countries are not just looking to achieve the EU average but to achieve the level of their neighbours like Germany and Austria.

As such, strong foreign investment inflows are expected to continue. Wage levels are still significantly lower. German labour costs work out at €29.8 per hour, but that level is only €6.4 in Czech Republic and €4.1 in Slovakia. "There's a very large difference in labour costs so we will still see continued inflows," he said. 

Other attractive aspects are the favourable taxation – Czech and Slovaks have flat tax rates, so will Hungary from next year – the improving infrastructure and strong EU anchor means the investment environment is safe. 

Finally, there is still a lot of EU money flowing in to help these countries develop. Between 2007 and 2013, the EU has mandated that 20% of these countries' annual GDP will come in as EU funds.

Central European markets are the highest valued markets in the East Capital’s investment universe – Czech Republic market trades at 12.2x price/earnings, Poland at 12.4x, Hungary about 11x compared with Russia on about 7x. But the stock-picking asset manager still finds some companies with attractive valuations and a positive outlook, many of these in the small to mid-cap universe, to which the asset manager's Bering New Europe fund is dedicated.

Taggar: East Capital Summit | (Comments)
Marcus Svedbergs bild
2010-09-09 (Comments)

It may be a stretch to argue that the Czech economy is as beautiful as Prague but it is one of the most obvious success stories in Europe. It is one of the most developed economies in Eastern Europe with a GDP/capita higher than Portugal and one may even argue that it is neither an emerging market nor belongs in Eastern Europe.

In the eyes of some international financial institutions, the Czechs have already graduated from the emerging class; it is no longer a country of operation for the EBRD, the development bank focusing on the region, and is not to be found among the emerging economies in the IMF statistics but rather among the advanced economies. Regarding its geographical place, Prague is actually situated west of Stockholm and talking about the Czech Republic as an Eastern European country can be a non-starter when talking to Czechs. 

So, how should we define the Czech Republic? It is not quite Western European and perhaps not a fully-fledged market economy yet. It is certainly Central European in terms of geography and atmosphere and it may be described as one of the most emerged out of the emerging markets in Europe.

 
From yesterday when I spoke at the summit in Prague.
 
  View of Prague.
 
Taggar: Central Europe, East Capital Summit, Emerging markets | (Comments)
Guest blogger - bnes bild
2010-09-08 (Comments)

The Icelandic volcanic ash cloud put paid to East Capital's original plans to host its annual investor Summit in April this year, but Peter Elam Hakansson opened the Summit today to the over 100 delegates from more than 20 countries with a speech that spoke of "cautious optimism."

"Economies [in the CEE region] are going from recovery to solid growth, although at a more balanced and sustainable pace," he said. "One of the exciting themes is the catch-up process to Western Europe levels and we are getting back to that." 

Even so, Bengt Dennis, a former governor of the Swedish central bank who sits on East Capital's advisory committee, said "we are still not back to the future."

Dennis said that most markets are not back to full capacity; in many cases the markets are nearing growth rates of the past, but some are lagging and will take more time to get back there. He also said that while these economies look robust in the sense the statistics are strong, "domestic demand is still very, very weak and a real broad-based recovery will have to wait for a few reasons."

Those reasons include the need for continued tight fiscal policies to reduce debt and bring budget deficits down; unemployment is still high and job growth is slow; household balance sheets are weak; and demand for credit is still slow. "It will take time to correct the imbalances," he said.

For the investor, though, the important point is not to wait for that broad-based recovery to arrive and an economy running at full capacity before investing, because he or she will run the risk of missing out on the superior returns. "The stock market tends to be six to 12 months ahead of the real economy."

Within the region, Dennis pointed out that those countries that went into the downturn with a good track record of running their economies have tended to recover much quicker, Poland being a prime example, which with some good luck but also good policies managed to avoid going into recession. At the other extreme are the Baltic countries, whose economies had grown too fast with too many imbalances and so the recovery has been more drawn out.

Even so, the Baltics should take some credit for addressing the problems head on, especially Estonia, which adjusted quickly and is now due to join the euro from next year. "Latvia won’t be back to 2007 GDP growth levels until 2015 or so, there will be many lost years for Latvia," said Dennis.

Looking at Central Europe, some of the latest data is at levels that could be called "booming" – for example, industrial production growth numbers are strong partly because Germany is growing well, but also because of the low base, since output dropped so sharply during the crisis. "Domestic demand is still weak, though exports are growing quite briskly," said Svedberg.

By contrast, Turkey is one of the least export-dependent economies in the region but is benefiting from strong domestic demand from its young and growing population, which is driving the economy and the stock market is reaching all-time highs this year. "I can't help but be impressed by how Turkey has acted during the crisis," said Svedberg.

Taggar: East Capital Summit | (Comments)

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Våra bloggare

  • Karine Hirns bild

    Partner och Chief Representative, Shanghai-kontoret. Karine bloggar om East Capital, våra fondprodukter och ger direktrapporter från Shanghai.

  • Marcus Svedbergs bild

    East Capitals chefekonom fokuserar på makroekonomi, analyser och omvärldshändelser som påverkar utvecklingen i regionen.

  • Vesna Luccas bild
    East Capitals kommunikationschef skriver främst om East Capital som företag och aktuella mediefrågor.
  • Kristina Sandklefs bild

    Kristina, makroekonom Asien, delar med sig av sina erfarenheter och analyserar trender och händelser som påverkar Kina.

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