Putin hints at return in 2012

September 7, 2010

_ Comments on the next presidential election. The seventh annual Valdai Discussion Club finishes today (7 Sep). The forum, which is hosted by RIA Novosti, is an annual event that brings together the foremost authorities on Russian politics and economics both from Russia and abroad, as well as numerous government officials, including Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. Speaking on Monday night (6 Sep), Putin made a number of comments that we interpret to mean that his path to re- election to the presidency in 2012 remains wide open.

_ High-profile summer. Russia analysts have been following Putin's profile over the summer closely. Media coverage of the prime minister has been dominated by a number of high-profile opportunities, such as fighting the fires that covered western Russia and driving a Lada across eastern Russia, leading to increased speculation that his re-election campaign has already started.

_ Russia's Roosevelt? Speaking before the Valdai Discussion Club on Monday night, Putin drew comparisons between himself and Franklin D. Roosevelt, underlining his legal right to stand for a third time in 2012 and that in doing so he would not be undermining the constitution. Though this was not the first time Putin referred to Roosevelt, we see these comments as the clearest sign yet that Putin sees a role for himself as president again.

_ Constitutional right. Commenting on Roosevelt's 12 years as US president, Putin is quoted by RIA Novosti as saying, "Back in his time, US President Roosevelt was elected four times in a row because it did not contradict the constitution." On being asked whether his possible comeback as president in 2012 might threaten the Russian political system, Putin went on to say, "Neither I nor President [Dmitry] Medvedev will do anything contradicting the current legal system."

_ Relief, recovery and reform. Previously, during a question and answer session in 2007, Putin alluded to the New Deal of the 1930s, which he credited with taking the US out of the Great Depression. Putin commented that, "Roosevelt laid out his plan for the country's development for decades in advance... At the end of the day, it turned out that the implementation of that plan benefited ordinary citizens and the elites and eventually brought the US to the position it is in today."

_ No firm commitment yet. The prime minister has not yet, however, made a firm commitment to run, commenting that it is still too early to talk about 2012. We think that investors should not be entirely surprised that Putin is unwilling to commit, and that discussions between Medvedev and Putin are likely to continue for a while, with both conscious of the dangers of being viewed as lame ducks should they decide not to run.

_ Opinion polls still firmly upbeat. Putin's high profile over the summer months appears to us to be paying dividends. Despite what appeared to be widespread criticism of the government's handling of the forest fires that scorched western Russia, Putin's approval ratings actually increased through August. According to data from VTsIOM, Putin's approval rating in the last week of August was 73%. At the beginning of August, the prime minister's approval rating had fallen to 70% from 73%. Medvedev's rating in the last week of August stood at 69%, having fallen to 66% from 72% at the start of the month.